Saturday, December 03, 2016

THE WORLD'S DAMS ARE DESTROYING MINES AND KILLING PEOPLE



RUDNA(POLAND) MINE DISASTER WHICH KILLED 8 MINERS DUE TO DAM-CAUSED QUAKE

By Ramaswami Ashok Kumar, B.E.,M.E., Negentropist, Bombay Sarvodaya Mandal, 299, Tardeo Road, Nana Chowk, Mumbai-400007.

© 2016-2017 Ramaswami Ashok Kumar

A 4.3 MM moment magnitude earthquake on 2016-11-29T20:09:39.280Z at 3km NNW of Grebocice, Poland about 14 km from the Polish  copper and silver deep mine  Rudna caused a portion of the mine to collapse and caused the death of 8 miners. This earthquake was caused by the world’s dams (Ref 1).

The dam surge of 0.000217669 billion cubic meters (BCM) at the instant of the quake caused the quake at

51.627
16.1568



at a depth of 5 km with a seismic moment of 0.000281838x10^19.05 Nm. At the hypocentre the displacement was vertically downwards of 83.2786 m. The distance of the hypocentre to the centre of gravity of the world’s dams located at

25.808498
100.4093825



was 7405 km.

The energy released by the earthquake was 1.77828E+11 Nm.

The force applied by the dam surge at the hypocentre was -2135335566 N. This is about 100000 times the thrust developed by an Airbus 320 plane!

Thus the (downward) displacement at the hypocentre was energy released/Force

= 1.77828E+11/-2135335566

= -83.2786 m

The dam surge mentioned was also applied at the Rudna mine located at 1.224 km below ground at

51.50167
16.10722.



The dam surge appeared slightly later, 0.891 s, at the Rudna mine location because it is more distant from the centre of gravity of the world’s dams. The distance from the centre of gravity(CG) of the dams to the mine  is 7411 km. The dam surge that hit the mine is assumed to be caused by the same dam content change which caused the damquake, as the time for the surge to appear at the mine is only 0.891 s later than the time of the quake in Poland.

The water moment exerted by this dam content change on the mine is dam content change(dbcm) acting at CGx the water moment arm which is the distance CG-mine location*9.81 Nm or

Water moment,WM,Nm = 0.000217669*10^15*9.81*7411/10^19.05/5=0.000282081

Log20%WM=-3.549626611

Equivalent Damquake magnitude,EqMM=(10-3.549626611)/1.5=4.300248926 MM.

The energy released by this equivalent damquake at the mine is calculated from

LogEsRudna=1.5*4.3+4.8=11.25037339,

Thus EsRudna, Nm = 10^11.25= 1.77981E+11

The force exerted by the dam content change on the mine is dbcmx10^12x9.81 N or

Force,N= 0.000217669x 10^12x9.81= -2135332890

Thus vertical (downward) displacementt at Rudna mine,m= Es/Force=1.77981E+11/-2135332890 or

-83.3504 m.

Thus the ground sank by 83.35 m at the mine, and thus the boulders came crashing down at the mine location some 1.224 km down, where the workers were situated.



Conclusion. The world’s dams meeting water needs are exerting forces and bending moments on modern civilization's infrastructure making it collapse catastrophically all over the world. This time it’s the large mine in Poland. Days before on 21 November it was a major earthquake at South Island New Zealand, In October 2016 it was destruction of whole villages and heritage structures in Central Italy and many deaths.

References.

1. Ramaswami Ashok Kumar.2015. predicting earthquakes: The science of dams causing earthquakes and climate change at


http://predictingquakes.blogspot.in/2015/04/the-science-of-dams-causing-earthquakes.html





Thursday, October 20, 2016

DAM SURGES DETERMINE RUPTURE DURATIONS



Earthquakes caused by dams.
A study of displacements during significant earthquakes.
© 2016 Ramaswami Ashok Kumar
19 October 2016 Rev 2 November 2016.

A study of displacements during 12 significant earthquakes of the world caused by combined action of all surface water bodies on land (Ref 1) shows that the rupture duration of the earthquakes (Ref 2) is determined by the sum of the dam content changes occurring in all the reservoirs: Figure 2Ch2 (Data from Table 1):




The dam content change occurring in the dry season, October to June is taken as negative while that in the monsoon is taken as positive.
1. The rupture duration of the earthquake in seconds(s) correlates linearly  with the absolute value of the dam content change denoted by ABSdbcm, measured in billion cubic meters(BCM) significant: CORREL(ABSdbcm, s):
            R                                          df           t                     p                           R^2
0.772659733
10
3.848907
0.003217957
0.597003




R^2 is 0.597.
2. A non-linear correlation of the rupture duration, s with the absolute value of the dam content change which is shown also in Figure 2Ch2 is a cubic fit with R^2 = 0.8801 or R= 0.9385. The cubic fit is
y = -9E-09x3 + 9E-05x2 - 0.0322x + 49.414
R² = 0.8801
Less than 12% of the variations are not explained by this fit.
3. Note also that the linear correlation between the energy released at the hypocentre of the quake, Es in Joules and the ABS(dam content Change),BCM  is
          R             Df            T                  P
0.9392
10
8.649598
5.9052E-06

4. And that the linear correlation between the Power in Terawatts of the energy release at the quake is
         R              Df            T                  P
0.872757
10
5.653733
0.000211361


5. And the probability of all these occurring simultaneously due to chance is equal to  product of three probabilities at 1, 3 and 4 and  is   4.01643E-12.





For the values of dam content change due to energy release Es in Joules at the quake hypocentre, the energy released Es, the rupture duration in seconds, s , the power of the energy release at the hypocentre. Terawatts, and other derived values, see rows 44 to 60 in Table 1. Data for Latur Earthquake is from Ref 3.







Following  Ref 4 Earthquakes Caused By Dams, I extend Table 1 for 8 more significant earthquakes and as shown there water Moment determines earthquakes: Water Moment is modeled as dam content change, dbcm, measured in BCM multiplied by the hypocentre displacement,d measured in meters, dbcmxd. 
Note that d=(Distance between centre of gravity of water masses behind dams and the hypocentre of the earthquake measured in kilometers)/(5x10E1.25).
The rupture duration data is from USGS Moment Rate Function of Finite Fault Analysis.Where this data is unavailable, the rupture duration is taken as twice the half duration from USGS Moment Tensor data for seismic moment.
The data is shown in Table 2:





Figure 2 shows the correlations.

Figure 2: Linear and 4 degree polynomial  correlations show the ground reality of dams rigidly controlling the earthquakes. Only less than 7 percent of the variations of rupture duration are not explained by the 4 degree polynomial.









References:

1. predicting earthquakes: The science of dams causing earthquakes and climate change at




2. USGS: Significant Earthquakes of the World at




3.PROCEEDINGS OF SMiRT-13-POST CONFERENCE SEMINAR-16

SEISMIC EVALUATION OF EXISTING NUCLEAR FACILITIES

LATUR EARTHQUAKE AND ITS IMPACT ON THE ASEISMIC DESIGN

OF STRUCTURES IN INDIA

P.C. BASU

Atomic Energy Regulatory Board, INDIA

XA9952647

www.iaea.org/inis/collection/NCLCollectionStore/_Public/30/053/30053310.pdf
 

4. Ashok Kumar R. 2005. Earthquakes Caused by Dams at
http://earthquakescausedbydams.blogspot.in/2006/07/title-earthquakes-caused-by-dams.html